According to initial projections by Climatic Researchers, India is likely to get phenomenally hotter and considerably wetter due to the rising threat of Global warming.

Forecasting the Threat. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) scientists have designed two models that can forecast the impact of this threat. Both the models have predicted about the possible increase in hotter climate but differed about the monsoonal changes. If the concentration of green house gases increase by 1 percent each year than the temperature will rise at 2 to 3 degree Celsius by the end of this century. This increase would cause serious consequences for crop growth and weather patterns.

Global warming’s effect on the Indian monsoon. The models indicate a weakening of the link between El Nino, the warming of eastern pacific waters and the monsoon. This weak link is already been evident in India over the past two decades. This is now being considered as an early signal of possible global warming effect on monsoon variability. Global warming, however, is not expected to affect the link between La Niña, or the cold sea surface temperatures in tropical Pacific waters, and the Indian monsoon. This may the reason both the models differ each other out on the Global warming’s effect on the Indian monsoon.

Green house gases. The green house gases are on the rise each year and large cities in India and China are recording a worrying increase in aerosol because of human activities that in turn would create more hotspots for climate change.

Shrinking Glaciers. It has already been proven that the Himalayan glaciers are actually shrinking and within 50 to 60 years they will virtually run out of the water supply they are giving out now. This will cut down drastically the water available downstream, and in agricultural economies like the plains of UP (Uttar Pradesh) and Bihar, which are poor places to begin with. This is probably going to, over a short period of time, cause tremendous social upheaval.

But not everyone agrees upon this point. Some scientists say the glaciers have been shrinking for decades and other factors are to be blamed. Certainly India has a long history of extreme weather patterns. Floods and draughts have followed one after another. They argue that it will be too simplistic to blame global warming just because for these few years floods and draught have been acute.

Not Accurate Models. Dr RR Kelkar, the director general of the Indian meteorological department, says it is too early for accurate data to be available yet. He also adds that even some scientists have simulated models of this phenomenon there is no clear statistically significant trend that things are going to change drastically. He reminds that India is a tropical country and we are also used to heavy rains and severe draughts. Dr. Kelkar also added that the models these scientists have modeled just have one big problem since they are sometimes blown out into scary stories and we should not fall for that.

Some believe even if the stories are fact or scary the knowledge on the impact about global warming is entirely controlled by the west.

Professor SK Sinha, a specialist at the water technology centre at the Pusa Institute accuses the West, and in particular the United States, of manipulating the debate. He says that they (Western powers) make the rules and in fact lure people from the developing countries to substantiate or to confirm that data, not necessarily always with very valid equipments and arguments.

India not affected by Global Warming. Former scientific adviser to the Prime Minister and eminent scientist Vasant Gowarikar feels that global warming has not affected the Indian climatic system. He puts forth various data for his case. Gowrikar says that if we look at the last 115 years of data on cyclones, we will find that the highest number of cyclones (ten) hit the country in 1893, 1926 and 1930. If we check last 20 years’ data, the highest number of cyclones in that period, which is six, hit the Indian shores in 1992 and 1998.

He also points that the highest rainfall recorded in the country was in 1917, with 1457.3 cm of rainfall and the lowest was in 1918 with 913 cm and over the last 20 year period, if we look at the highest rainfall, it was recorded in 1988 with 1288 cm while the lowest was in 2000 with 939 cm and argues that if climate change has taken place in terms of warming, that should reflect on this data, but there is nothing to indicate the claims of warming affecting the Indian climate system.

According to him, the monsoon is one of the most complex weather phenomenons as it involves both local and global factors. He also did argue that India should not take or share the responsibility with the gang that actually caused the factors for this global warming nor should it look into the effortless warnings the western powers put before it.

Written by Nathesh